Bulletin
Ministry of Natural Resources
Watershed Conditions Statement - Water Safety
Bracebridge-Minden-Parry Sound District
Friday, March 06, 2026
1:00pm
The Ministry of Natural Resources– Bracebridge-Minden-Parry Sound District is advising
area residents that a Watershed Conditions Statement - Water Safety bulletin is in effect in
the District until Friday, March 13, 2026
This message will affect residents within the MNR Bracebridge-Minden-Parry Sound District
for portions of the District of Parry Sound, District of Muskoka, and County of Haliburton
within the Black, Boyne, Burnt, Gull, Pickerel, Seguin, Severn, Magnetawan and Muskoka
River Watersheds.
Residents and those visiting the area are advised to be aware of current watershed
conditions. Higher than normal water levels and flow conditions may develop throughout the
area and residents are reminded to keep a close watch on weather conditions, regularly
check for updated messages, and exercise caution near fast-moving rivers and streams.
Water levels in most lakes are at or below target for this time of year but are expected to
increase with forecasted precipitation and runoff from melting snow.
MNR advises residents to exercise extreme caution concerning ice conditions. No ice is
safe ice.
Residents and visitors should exercise caution while around waterbodies and maintain
close supervision of children and pets.
Residents that have been affected by high water and flow conditions in the past should
continue take necessary action to protect/secure any vulnerable property in proximity to
rivers and lakes and closely monitor developing conditions and regularly check for updated
messages.
Lower-lying portions of known flood-prone areas may be impacted to various degrees as
runoff from rainfall and melting snow enter watercourses.
The ministry is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions. Further updates will be issued as appropriate.
TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Description of Weather System
Environment Canada has issued a Rainfall Warning for much of the area.
Significant rainfall is possible from March 6-7. The existing snowpack is expected to absorb some of this rainfall, but significant runoff is possible with snowpack melt and rainfall combined.
What: Total rainfall amounts of 35 mm to 50 mm and potential for thunderstorms, with daytime high temperatures up to 13⁰ C are possible.
When: Friday evening, March 6 through Saturday March 7, 2026.
Additional information: Daytime high temperature forecasted over 10⁰ C on March 7 and March 9, potentially causing temporary accelerated melt of the snowpack. Temperatures dip below freezing for an extended period by March 12.
Description of Current Conditions
Water levels in most lakes are at or below target for this time of year. Rainfall is anticipated to cause lake levels to rise, and river flows to increase. The current snow water equivalent ranges from above the historical average for the western portions of the district (Magnetawan and Seguin River watersheds) to near normal for the eastern portions of the district (Muskoka, Black, Burnt, Gull River watersheds) for this time of year.
DEFINITIONS
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.
•
WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions.
•
SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that along the Great Lakes shorelines high water, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous but flooding is not expected.
•
SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding along the Great Lakes shorelines based on weather and lake conditions, and water safety information.
•
FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities
•
FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.
LEARN MORE
•
Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage www.ontario.ca/page/surface-water-monitoring-centre
•
Environment Canada bulletins: www. weather.gc.ca
•
A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada is recommended.
Water Management Team, Bracebridge Minden Parry Sound District Office, 705-645-8747 or watermanagement.psdistrict@ontario.ca
ontario.ca/mnr
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